Why Do 80% of SIM Swaps Still Succeed on the First Attempt?

By PAiCore Technology ● 2 min read

A mobile number is treated as a credential by almost every digital service that uses SMS one-time passwords. The problem is that a phone number was never designed to be one. It can be moved from one physical SIM to another, and when that happens, every code sent to “verify” the account holder goes to whoever is now holding the number — not the person the account actually belongs to.

A Princeton University study of five major US prepaid carriers found that 80% of first-attempt SIM swap requests succeeded, largely because the carriers relied on authentication challenges that were easy for an attacker to work around.

From a Phone Number to an Account Takeover

A simple workflow can be represented as:

Fraudster → Carrier Authentication Challenge → SIM Swap → SMS OTP Redirected → Account Takeover

The application never sees this happen. It only sees a correct OTP entered on time, because from the network’s perspective, the swap has already succeeded before the login attempt ever begins.

This pattern supports several well-documented fraud categories:

  • Bank account and payment app takeover
  • Cryptocurrency wallet theft
  • Email and social media hijacking
  • Password reset abuse across any service using SMS OTP

Why the OTP Itself Isn’t the Weak Point

The one-time password is doing exactly what it was designed to do — proving that a code sent to a number was entered correctly. The weakness sits one layer below that, in the assumption that the number still points to the same physical SIM it did yesterday.

A Check a Swapped SIM Cannot Pass

Silent Network Authentication works differently. Instead of sending a shared secret to a phone number, it queries the mobile network directly to confirm that the SIM currently active on that number matches the SIM associated with the account.

Application → Silent Network Authentication API → Network API Gateway → Mobile Network → SIM Match Result

A swapped SIM fails this check by definition, because the fraud depends on the number pointing to a different physical SIM than the one on record. There is no code to intercept, because nothing is sent to intercept.

Where PAiCore Fits

PAiCore’s Network API Gateway exposes Silent Network Authentication as a standard, CAMARA-aligned API, bridging modern applications directly to the underlying telecom signaling that can confirm SIM identity in real time — without adding a step for the user.

Explore PAiCore Network API Gw

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References

A phone number can be redirected. A silent, network-verified check on the SIM behind it cannot.

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